BNEF expects 34% fall in PV module prices in 2018
The saying is that as California goes, so goes the nation. But in solar, as China goes, so goes the world.
As the result of an abrupt withdrawal of support for the nation’s solar PV market, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has predicted a 34% decline in multicrystalline solar module prices in China.
This would be roughly equivalent to the fall in module prices in 2016, and only exceeded by the 40% fall in prices in 2011.
And as China is by far the world’s largest solar market, this is expected to spread globally. “Oversupply is universal,” states a note by BNEF, written by four members of the organization’s Chinese team.
BNEF provides a benchmark monocrystalline module price of US$0.37 per watt for the fourth quarter of 2017, and expects this to fall to only $0.24/watt ex VAT by the end of the year.
The note predicts “market panic” in the short term, and for developers to suspend installation throughout the third quarter while waiting for the release of the new quotas and cheaper module prices.
|BNEF expects 34% fall in PV module prices in 2018
The organization is expecting carnage throughout the solar value chain as the result of reduced policy support for deployment in China.